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AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs home favorites vs. Buffalo Bills

Johnny Parlay
Sportsbook Wire

The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) host the Buffalo Bills (14-3) in the AFC Championship Game Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Below, we take a look at the early Bills-Chiefs betting odds and lines at BetMGM Sportsbook.

The Bills, the AFC's No. 2 seed, ended a 26-year drought in reaching their first AFC title game since the 1993-94 season. They advanced behind a 17-3 victory over the visiting Baltimore Ravens as 2.5-point favorites Saturday. With Baltimore facing third-and-goal at the Bills' 9-yard line late in the third quarter and looking to tie things up, Buffalo CB Taron Johnson intercepted a Lamar Jackson pass and returned it 101 yards for a touchdown and an eventual 17-3 lead. The Bills defense kept the Ravens out of the end zone and limited the NFL's top running offense to 150 yards - Baltimore entered averaging a league-best 191.9 rushing yards per game. The victory was the eighth in a row for the Bills, who covered the spread for the ninth time in their last 10 games. They didn't cover as 7-point home favorites in a 27-24 Divisional Round win vs. the Indianapolis Colts after running off 8 consecutive covers.

The Chiefs will play in their third consecutive AFC title game. The defending Super Bowl champions punched their ticket with a 22-17 home win vs. the Cleveland Browns Sunday but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites. The big news was QB Patrick Mahomes exiting with a concussion in the third quarter and Kansas City ahead 19-10. Backup Chad Henne entered, completed 6 of 8 passes for 66 yards with one interception and helped the Chiefs hold off the Browns for the W. The 11-year veteran inserted himself into Chiefs lore with back-to-back plays right after the 2-minute warning. He scrambled for a 13-yard gain on a third-and-14 play and followed with a 5-yard pass to WR Tyreek Hill on head coach Andy Reid's gutsy fourth-and-1 call at the KC 48-yard line. That allowed the Chiefs to run out the clock. Mahomes, who threw for 255 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions and added a rushing TD, will likely be OK by next week, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Kansas City and Buffalo have met twice before in the AFC Championship. The Bills won 30-13 in 1994 and the Chiefs claimed a 31-7 victory in 1967. Buffalo is 2-1 all time vs. Kansas City in the postseason - the Bills were the home team in all three games.

They faced off once this season with Kansas City winning at Buffalo 26-17 in Week 6 as a 5.5-point favorite - the game finished well Under the O/U of 55. The Chiefs are 4-1 vs. the Bills in their last five meetings, dating back to Nov. 3, 2013.

Bills at Chiefs: Betting odds, spread and line

Odds via BetMGM; last updated Monday at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Bills +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Chiefs -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Bet now
  • Against the spread/ATS: Bills +3, -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Chiefs -3, +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Bet now
  • Total: 54.5, Over -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Under -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Bet now

Betting stats:

  • ATS : Bills 12-6 (11-5 regular season, 1-1 playoffs) | Chiefs 7-10 (7-9, 0-1)
  • O/U : Bills 11-6-1 (10-5-1, 1-1) | Chiefs 8-9 (8-8, 0-1)

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At +130 odds, the Bills have an implied 43.48% chance of winning or 13/10 fractional odds. Buffalo needs to win outright, or lose by fewer than 3 points for a Bills +3 (-120) ATS ticket to cash. A 3-point loss is a push and you get your money back.

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At -155 odds, the Chiefs have an implied 60.78% chance of winning, or 20/31 fractional odds. Kansas City needs to win by at least 4 points for a Chiefs -3 (+100) ticket to cash.

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